U.S. prods Iraq to act during drop in violence
Leaders must use relative calm to advance political reconciliation, increase basic services and pass laws, officials and experts say.
BAGHDAD -- As Iraq's government on Monday trumpeted a dramatic decline in violence, describing it as a sign that sectarian warfare is waning, U.S. officials warned that the gains would be short-lived if the nation's leaders did not use the relative calm to advance political reconciliation.
A day after U.S. military officials proclaimed that bombings and other attacks had dropped 55% nationwide since June, the Iraqi government released figures showing steeper declines in the capital and surrounding areas. According to its figures, there were 323 violent attacks in the governorate of Baghdad last month, compared with 1,134 in June.
The violence remains high, but the current level is a vast improvement, one that turned government spokesman Ali Dabbagh nearly giddy as he spoke on Al Arabiya TV on Monday. Dabbagh said Baghdad had "defeated the forces of darkness" and returned to its glory as "the beautiful city of the 'One Thousand and One Arabian Nights.' "
"Certainly we still have more to do, but no one can deny that we have passed the difficult stage in Baghdad, the stage that we all had fears of sliding to a civil war," he said.
Dabbagh echoed U.S. officials who have cited various factors for decreasing violence: the recruitment of former insurgents to work alongside U.S. and Iraqi security forces; a decision by Sunni Arab tribal leaders to turn on insurgents; and the deployment of an additional 28,500 American troops to Iraq between February and June of this year as part of a U.S. security plan.
But military and government officials warned at the start of the clampdown that it would not have lasting success unless it was matched with political progress. It is a message being repeated with a new sense of urgency, now that Iraqi leaders can no longer blame huge bombs, mass abductions, and street-by-street fighting as an excuse for political paralysis.
Analysts, as well as officials, say now is the time that Iraq's Shiite Muslim-led government must step up delivery of essential services, revive schools and hospitals, and pass laws to end distrust among Sunni Arabs, Shiites and Kurds.
"It's about confidence-building measures. You have got to step forward," said the No. 2 commander of U.S. troops in Iraq, Army Lt. Gen. Raymond T. Odierno.
Odierno said the government has a window of opportunity, perhaps until next summer, to act before gains begin unraveling. "Security is better, so now is the time to reach out to the other parts of the Iraqi populace," he said. "It's time to really look at delivering services to all Iraqis in Baghdad and around" the country.
U.S. government officials agree.
"This is absolutely the case," said U.S. Embassy spokesman Philip T. Reeker. "This really is the time when they need to take advantage of the window that has been given."
Some basic services such as electricity are showing signs of improvement, with most customers receiving more power per day than a few months ago. But that could be because demand for electricity is down now that the end of summer has reduced use of air conditioners.
The major laws that U.S. and Iraqi leaders long maintained were crucial to peace have not been passed, and there is little sign any of them will be soon. None has come before the parliament for debate.
Chief among them are a law to end the official shunning of former members of Saddam Hussein's ruling Baath Party, who were stripped of their jobs and pensions after Hussein's ouster; a law to manage the country's oil industry so that Sunni Arab, Shiite and Kurdish regions reap the financial rewards; and a law to decide the extent of provinces' powers.
Perhaps the most pressing is the provincial powers law, which is necessary before provincial elections can be held. A U.S. Embassy official said there had been no movement on it since July and that different factions were deadlocked over such things as whether the prime minister should have the power to sack governors. This has stalled the scheduling of provincial elections, since no party wants to hold them until they know the provinces' ultimate powers, said the official, who asked to remain anonymous.
Odierno said provincial elections were a key confidence-building measure. "I'm hoping it happens next year. I think it's essential," he said.
Senior Pentagon officials, including Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates, have frequently expressed frustration that political reconciliation has lagged behind progress they say is being made by U.S. forces. At one point, Gates bluntly warned Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri Maliki that U.S. troops were buying him time with their blood.
But one senior U.S. military official noted that many Iraqi government leaders had been chosen by their peers precisely because they did not have a strong political base, leaving them insecure and not inclined to move quickly and decisively.
"They weren't the strongest horses around; there was concern about somebody taking the reins and running away with it," the official said. "Because of their insecurities and the weakness of their political base, they've been reluctant to jump off the high board."
Maliki's government has bristled at the U.S. impatience and accused American lawmakers of trying to push Iraq's parliament to satisfy Washington's clock. It also has been slow to embrace the U.S. military's idea of using former Sunni Arab insurgents as security forces, warning that such recruits could turn on Shiite forces once American troops leave.
A day after U.S. military officials proclaimed that bombings and other attacks had dropped 55% nationwide since June, the Iraqi government released figures showing steeper declines in the capital and surrounding areas. According to its figures, there were 323 violent attacks in the governorate of Baghdad last month, compared with 1,134 in June.
The violence remains high, but the current level is a vast improvement, one that turned government spokesman Ali Dabbagh nearly giddy as he spoke on Al Arabiya TV on Monday. Dabbagh said Baghdad had "defeated the forces of darkness" and returned to its glory as "the beautiful city of the 'One Thousand and One Arabian Nights.' "
"Certainly we still have more to do, but no one can deny that we have passed the difficult stage in Baghdad, the stage that we all had fears of sliding to a civil war," he said.
Dabbagh echoed U.S. officials who have cited various factors for decreasing violence: the recruitment of former insurgents to work alongside U.S. and Iraqi security forces; a decision by Sunni Arab tribal leaders to turn on insurgents; and the deployment of an additional 28,500 American troops to Iraq between February and June of this year as part of a U.S. security plan.
But military and government officials warned at the start of the clampdown that it would not have lasting success unless it was matched with political progress. It is a message being repeated with a new sense of urgency, now that Iraqi leaders can no longer blame huge bombs, mass abductions, and street-by-street fighting as an excuse for political paralysis.
Analysts, as well as officials, say now is the time that Iraq's Shiite Muslim-led government must step up delivery of essential services, revive schools and hospitals, and pass laws to end distrust among Sunni Arabs, Shiites and Kurds.
"It's about confidence-building measures. You have got to step forward," said the No. 2 commander of U.S. troops in Iraq, Army Lt. Gen. Raymond T. Odierno.
Odierno said the government has a window of opportunity, perhaps until next summer, to act before gains begin unraveling. "Security is better, so now is the time to reach out to the other parts of the Iraqi populace," he said. "It's time to really look at delivering services to all Iraqis in Baghdad and around" the country.
U.S. government officials agree.
"This is absolutely the case," said U.S. Embassy spokesman Philip T. Reeker. "This really is the time when they need to take advantage of the window that has been given."
Some basic services such as electricity are showing signs of improvement, with most customers receiving more power per day than a few months ago. But that could be because demand for electricity is down now that the end of summer has reduced use of air conditioners.
The major laws that U.S. and Iraqi leaders long maintained were crucial to peace have not been passed, and there is little sign any of them will be soon. None has come before the parliament for debate.
Chief among them are a law to end the official shunning of former members of Saddam Hussein's ruling Baath Party, who were stripped of their jobs and pensions after Hussein's ouster; a law to manage the country's oil industry so that Sunni Arab, Shiite and Kurdish regions reap the financial rewards; and a law to decide the extent of provinces' powers.
Perhaps the most pressing is the provincial powers law, which is necessary before provincial elections can be held. A U.S. Embassy official said there had been no movement on it since July and that different factions were deadlocked over such things as whether the prime minister should have the power to sack governors. This has stalled the scheduling of provincial elections, since no party wants to hold them until they know the provinces' ultimate powers, said the official, who asked to remain anonymous.
Odierno said provincial elections were a key confidence-building measure. "I'm hoping it happens next year. I think it's essential," he said.
Senior Pentagon officials, including Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates, have frequently expressed frustration that political reconciliation has lagged behind progress they say is being made by U.S. forces. At one point, Gates bluntly warned Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri Maliki that U.S. troops were buying him time with their blood.
But one senior U.S. military official noted that many Iraqi government leaders had been chosen by their peers precisely because they did not have a strong political base, leaving them insecure and not inclined to move quickly and decisively.
"They weren't the strongest horses around; there was concern about somebody taking the reins and running away with it," the official said. "Because of their insecurities and the weakness of their political base, they've been reluctant to jump off the high board."
Maliki's government has bristled at the U.S. impatience and accused American lawmakers of trying to push Iraq's parliament to satisfy Washington's clock. It also has been slow to embrace the U.S. military's idea of using former Sunni Arab insurgents as security forces, warning that such recruits could turn on Shiite forces once American troops leave.