Richard Nadler has a fascinating article in the May 22 National Review (not available on line). Examining survey data from across the Middle East, he finds a substantial difference between opinion inside and outside of Iraq.
Outside of Iraq, “respondents consider Iraqis ‘worse off after the war’ by a margin of 77 percent to 6 percent.” Inside of Iraq, things are different. “Most applaud the destruction of the Baathist regime. By 52 percent to 29 percent they rate their lives as better post-Saddam, and by 48 percent to 18 percent they expect their lives to improve over the next year.”
There are, some fissures in Iraqi opinion, but the consensus holds. The 77 percent “think that ousting Saddam Hussein was worth it,” includes 91 percent of Kurds and 98 percent of the Shiites in Iraq.
Nadler goes on to cite other interesting data, including the substantial percentage of Iraqis who “consider the new regime both legitimate and democratic.” Meanwhile, outside of Iraq, only 4 percent thought that the 2004 handover of sovereignty to Iraqis was a “positive change.”
I suppose it is also no surprise that a substantial majority of people in the region, but outside of Iraq believe that citizens of France and German enjoy more freedom and democracy than those in the U.S.
To be sure, all survey data from this region, particularly from outside of Iraq must be taken with a large degree of salt. In unfree societies people have strong incentives not to tell the truth to pollsters (or to people who claim that they are).
Even if we take that under advisement, Nadler’s description of the bias to be found in the regions news sources from al-Jazeera to local print medium, suggests the dimensions of the problem. It is very hard to spread truth in unfree societies. Iraq, by contrast, has some diversity in its media, and some openness.
All that suggests a few points. First, it suggests the imperative of breaking the local news monopolies in the Middle East. The U.S. should up funding for the Middle Eastern version of Radio Free Europe.
In addition, it suggests that things in Iraq are much better than they seem. It might be that the bias from outside or Iraq colors reporters’ judgments about what’s happening inside the country. That does not mean all is fine and dandy, but only that it’s probably not so bad as many fear.
Yesterday Powerline posted some good signs from Iraq. People have moved into Iraq in the past few years, the Iraqi currency has appreciated (it's dinar time), and pilgrimages are now regular in the nation.
In addition, the eternal return of the idea that “the next six months” will make or break Iraq suggests a certain constancy in things over there.