IRAQ

General leaves with forecast of progress

Exiting commander says violence should be subsiding by fall

KIM GAMEL

Associated Press

BAGHDAD, Iraq - The U.S. ambassador and top American commander in Iraq are set to leave their jobs with security no better than when they arrived, and they cautioned Monday against expecting significant success in quelling the violence soon.

Nearly a week after President Bush announced he was sending 21,500 more American troops to Iraq -- 17,500 of those to Baghdad -- Gen. George Casey said he did not expect significant results until the summer and fall. It was the first time he offered a time frame for the new security plan.

"As with any plan, there are no guarantees of success, and it's not going to happen overnight, but with sustained political support and the concentrated efforts on all sides I believe that this plan can work," Casey told a news conference.

"I think you'll see a gradual evolution over the next two to three months, and then you'll see things continue to get better up through the summer and fall. It'll take some time," he said.

The general said the new troops already had begun to arrive but he declined to say when the operation would begin.

"I don't want to talk too much about troop movements, but the initial elements of the first group are already here," he said, adding that reports that 4,000 U.S. troops had reached Baghdad were "a little high."

U.S. Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad, who joined Casey in speaking, said Washington was not imposing deadlines on the Iraqi government.

He also said he understood why Iraqis were wary about putting their faith in another security operation -- the third aimed at restoring peace in the capital since Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki took office in May.

Sectarian violence has increased since the Feb. 22 bombing of a Shiite mosque in Samarra, and the United Nations has said as many as 100 Iraqis die violently each day.

"I can understand and empathize with the Iraqi people. They certainly have suffered a lot. And they've heard positive predictions before, and all of that is true," he said. "But I want them to know that those predictions made before ...were made with the best of intentions, with good plans developed based on understanding of the circumstances of the time."

He and Casey stressed that this plan was different because it had a stronger commitment from the Iraqi leadership, and because of assurances that no areas of Baghdad would be allowed to serve as sanctuaries for gunmen. Those comments were a direct reference to past interference by al-Maliki to protect the Mahdi Army militia of radical Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, one of the Iraqi leader's key political backers.

Neither Casey, who assumed command on July 1, 2004, and will cede command of U.S. forces to Lt. Gen. David Petraeus, nor Khalilzad offered much new information.

Other Developments

• A suicide car bomber slammed into an Iraqi army patrol in the northern city of Mosul Monday, killing seven people and wounding 40 others, police said. A total of at least 55 people were killed or found dead across Iraq, authorities said.

• The U.S. military on Monday announced the deaths of two American soldiers, both killed in Baghdad.