Bush to spell out his 'new way forward' in Iraq

By Mark Silva
Washington Bureau

January 9, 2007, 9:08 PM CST

WASHINGTON -- Faced with mounting resistance in Congress and a deeply skeptical public, President Bush on Wednesday night will call for a shift of strategy in Iraq that includes a temporary increase of U.S. forces, a series of benchmark tasks for the Iraqi government and economic initiatives aimed at ending a conflict in which more than 3,000 American troops have died.

The stakes for the plan's success were evident in central Baghdad on Tuesday, when more than 1,000 Iraqi and American soldiers backed by U.S. jets and helicopter gunships engaged in a daylong battle with insurgents in a Sunni militant stronghold, reportedly killing 50 militants.

Even before Bush spells out his long-awaited "new way forward" in Iraq in a televised address, leaders of the new Democratic-controlled Congress escalated their pre-emptive political attacks Tuesday, asserting their right to hold the president accountable for the rationale behind any new deployment of U.S. troops.

"President Bush should not be permitted to escalate the war further and send an even larger number of our troops into harm's way, without a clear and specific new authorization from Congress," Sen. Edward Kennedy (D-Mass.) said Tuesday. He described the Iraq war as "George Bush's Vietnam."

In the Senate and House, Democrats introduced legislation proposing that no additional troops be deployed or money spent on "escalation" of the war without prior congressional approval. But the first of as many as 20,000 additional troops would move into Iraq by month's end under the president's plan, a senior defense official told The Associated Press.

For Bush, regaining the public's confidence in his handling of the war may not rest with immediate reaction to the rhetoric of the speech but more with any success of his new war plan in the months ahead.

With public opposition to the war already fixed—and with a strong majority in a new opinion survey opposing the deployment of additional troops—analysts say the president's own war tactics must overcome skepticism that a speech alone cannot address.

"I don't expect he's going to get much of a response to this speech from a public that is very dubious about Iraq and has a strongly negative view of his handling of the issue," said Andrew Kohut, president of the Washington-based Pew Research Center. "I think he has to make his case and then wait for events to prove him right, if those numbers are going to change. … There is so much cynicism and so many doubts about him that expectations should be modest about the way the public reacts to this speech."

The president will deliver the speech at 8 p.m. CST from the basement Map Room of the White House, which served as the situation room for President Franklin Roosevelt during World War II. The last war map of Europe that Roosevelt viewed in April 1945 is displayed on a wall of the Chippendale-styled sitting room.

While the setting is rife with symbolism for the president's commitment to a global war against terrorism, much is riding on his ability to rally public support for his assertion that Iraq is the central front of that war today and that it is worthy of an accelerated campaign by U.S. forces—all points that aides said he will stress in his speech.

With about 140,000 troops already deployed in Iraq, Bush is expected to order a "surge" of as many as 20,000 additional troops in a bid to restore order to sections of Baghdad and other regions of Iraq besieged by sectarian violence.

The president also is expected to detail benchmarks for the Iraqi government to take responsibility for the nation's security, although he has steadfastly resisted any timetable for withdrawal of U.S. forces. The president plans not only to spell out his military and diplomatic goals in Iraq but also to seek financial aid to energize its economy.

With a swift bid for public support, Bush plans to travel to Ft. Benning, Ga., on Thursday to meet with troops there and press for the new war plan.

Bush faces not only congressional resistance to his plan but also public opposition.

A majority of Americans surveyed in recent days oppose the idea of a temporary increase of U.S. troops with a goal of restoring order in Iraq, according to the results of a new Gallup Poll. This survey found 61 percent opposed to the plan as Bush is expected to explain it, with just 36 percent supporting it.

Success in gaining any new public support will depend upon a convincing justification for his plan, according to Frank Newport, editor-in-chief of the Gallup Poll. "Our data shows that the public wants a justification for why it is worth it—not how can we win. … If the president's speech is successful, it will lay out the justification for why it's worth the costs."

The White House, promising an honest assessment in the speech of the "challenges" the U.S. has faced in Iraq, said Bush is aware of the need to recapture lost public support for the war.

"The president will not shape policy according to public opinion but he does understand that it's important to bring the public back to this war and restore public confidence and support for the mission," said White House spokesman Tony Snow. He issued the administration's own challenge to Congress.

"Democrats are going to have to make a choice here," Snow said. "They're going to have to decide where they stand in terms of two issues: No. 1, do you want Iraq to succeed. … And, No. 2, do you believe in supporting the troops, as you say, and how do you express that support?"

For Democrats, the challenge in the war debate with Bush involves maintaining support for American forces deployed in Iraq and elsewhere while challenging the deployment of added force. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) has insisted that Congress will not undercut funding for any troops already in Iraq, but Bush will bear "the burden of proof" for funding any added forces.

With nearly $500 billion already committed to the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan—and the administration expected to soon seek $100 billion more—Pelosi maintains that the days of the "blank check" that the GOP-run Congress gave Bush are gone.

In his speech Tuesday, Kennedy said: "The American people sent a clear message in November that we must change course in Iraq and begin to withdraw our troops, not escalate their presence. An escalation, whether it is called a surge or any other name, is still an escalation, and I believe it would be an immense new mistake. It would compound the original misguided decision to invade Iraq."

The president's address is likely to include admissions of slow progress since the U.S.-led invasion in March 2003.

Yet war critics insist that Bush remains in denial about the failure of U.S. forces to secure Iraq.

Sen. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) said, "We went from deception to denial and now we're in delusion, a delusion that somehow sending more American troops into the field of battle, putting them in the midst of a civil war … is going to bring this to an end sooner. I think the president is wrong."